Problems of Software Update and Causes of Two B737M8 Crashes

Two B737M8 crashes happened lately: one in Indonesia and the other in Ethiopia. The former killed 189 people at UTC 22:31 on Oct. 28, 2018 (LT 6:31 a.m. on Oct. 29) or 10 minutes after takeoff, while the latter did 157 at UTC 5:44 (LT 8:44 a.m.) on Mar. 10, 2019 or 6 minutes after takeoff (1). The same type of aircrafts, fast crashes shortly after takeoff and similar pitches (Rotation axis parallel to the wings) make media suspicious of its safety. In 371 jets of B737M8 and 9 in operation around the World, 242 jets have been grounded since Mar. 14, 2019 (2). Boeing attributed the crashes to AOA (Angle Of Attack) sensor for receiving the same erroneous input and added another AOA sensor for a double check. Boeing referred to this as a “software update” and claimed that it had successfully passed “two flight tests, including in-flight certification testing with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) as an observer” (3). However, there is a problem with this statement.

First of all, the software before the update must have passed a similar test flight, certified also by the FAA on board as an observer. Otherwise, it could not have entered the market. However, it got two crashes. Furthermore, the success of the two flight tests doesn’t mention whether or not it encountered horrible weather as bad as those of the two crashes. Thus, the “software update” cannot ensure its success while encountering the horrible weather.

Secondly, the software update relies on an assumption that the two crashed AOA sensors received the same “wrong input”, but without detail (1). The so called “wrong input” might be actually the correct abnormal input for the following three reasons:

(a) the altitude data of the Indonesia flight changed dramatically: “An erratic pattern, varying roughly between 4500 and 5350 feet” and the Ethiopian flight had “Difficulties with the aircraft” (1).

(b) The both pilots asked each control tower to return, which indicated bad weather outside (1).

(c) The WestJet was reported to operate more than 9,000 flights with 13 jets of B737M8 (2). By this ratio, 371 operated jets should have operated more than 256,000 flights. The ratio of failure is less than 1 in 128,000. This low ratio contradicts the assumption.

To avoid crashes, we should know what happened outside the two jets. A model to explain the Air France Crash (4) is patented as a prevention of mysterious air and sea accidents (5). This model attributes mysterious accidents to warm tumbling earthquake clouds. Those clouds contain enormous energy: 300~1520oC and 67055~96000 atm in impending hypocenters (6). They let us understand why the Airbus’ pilot complained: “We can’t climb much for the moment because the temperature is falling more slowly than forecast “in between 1:59:32 and 2:01:46” at “FL350” or 10500m (7). At this altitude, normal temperature is about “-53oC” (8). Relying on this model, we can attribute above “Wrong inputs”, “Erratic pattern” and “Difficulties” to the clouds because of their power and sudden appearance.

Compatible with this model is the clouds that did occur “at 2000 feet” above the Jakarta-Soekarno-Hatta Airport and “at 2500 feet” above the Addis Ababa-Bole Airport (1). Moreover, the daily maximum temperature in Serang (57 km west from the Jakarta airport) increased 2.2oC from UTC Oct. 27 to 28, 2018 and 1oC from Oct. 28 to 29. The Jakarta airport remained unchanged for the above three days, but an important reading was missed at UTC 16:00 on Oct. 28 (9). This kind of misses usually indicates abnormal pulse increases in temperature due to the cloud (6). Similarly, the daily maximum temperature at Addis Ababa Bole Airport increased by 0.6oC from UTC Mar. 9 to 10, 2019 although the airport lost many readings on Mar. 10. During the same period, Djibouti/ Ambouli and Abha (the both along the Red Sea) increased 2oC and 1.6oC respectively (9). Satellite images (10) and earthquake data (11) offer evidence that the former was associated to an M5 quake in the Unda Strait on Dec.22, 2018; while the latter M4.6 in the Red Sea on Mar. 10, 2019.

Mysterious air and sea accidents are caused by warm tumbling earthquake clouds. It is necessary to pay attention to this important factor. For example, if the control towers had paid attention, they would have allowed the pilots to return each airport. If the airports had paid attention, they would have recorded temperature minutely, found abnormal temperature increase and warned the control towers. If Boeing had paid attention, a B737M8 jet would have had a monitor to detect whether there were warm tumbling clouds in front of the jet, and avoid it if it happens. A black box should always record the both temperatures and pressures around a jet during a flight minutely, so it can quickly tell us whether a crash is due to the clouds or not. Unfortunately, there was no control tower, no airport, no pilot, and no manufacturer to notice the clouds. They altogether caused the two crashes, as well as other mysterious air and sea accidents, e.g. the Air France Crash (4).

It is time to pay the attention to the warm tumbling earthquake clouds. In 2010, I informed Airbus and Boeing about our paper (4), but didn’t receive a response. However, twelve serious air crashes have happened since Jan. 1, 2011. Each crash killed more than 100 people. Four accidents were blamed on violence and suicide. I have investigated the eight others, and found that they were all caused by the warm tumbling earthquake clouds. In those eight accidents, one was Airbus and four were Boeing's including Indonesia and Ethiopia. This fact indicates that both Airbus and Boeing should learn from the cloud's attributes (4, 5, 6) and improve the safety and performance of their aircraft to adapt the cloud.

The two crashes suggest control towers, weather reporters and pilots learning from the clouds (4, 5, 6), so the control towers would allow airplanes to return, the weather reporters would find the clouds, warn the control towers and offer the Public full minutely data; and the pilots would avoid entering rolling clouds. If so, major crashes can be prevented. Otherwise, crash can happen, e.g. A Russian crash killed 41 people on May 5, 2019 (1). Moreover, updated B737M8 can crash while entering rolling clouds.

References:

(1) ASN database http://aviation-safety.net/database/

(2) Emily Jackson. (2019-03-13) Boeing 737 Max grounded worldwide after new evidence in fatal crashes https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/airlines/newsalert-garneau-orders-grounding-of-all-boeing-737-max-8s-over-safety-concerns-2

(3) FAA (2019-04-02) statement on Boeing 737 MAX Software Update https://www.aviationnews-online.com/regulatory/faa-statement-on-boeing-737-max-software-update/

(4) Shou, Z., Xia, J., and Shou, W. (2010). Using the earthquake vapour theory to explain the French airbus crash. Remote Sens. Lett. 1, 85–94

(5) Shou, Z. (2011). Method of precise earthquake prediction and prevention of mysterious air and sea accidents, United States Patent: 8068985

(6) Shou, Z and Fang, Y. (2016). Earthquake Vapor Model & Precise Prediction. (ed. Shou, W. Amazon in English, and ed. Yao, W. Tianjin Univ. in Chinese 2018)

(7) BEA (2011-05-27). Accident to the Airbus A330-203 flight Af 447 on 1st June 2009. update on investigation.

(8) Ahrens, C.D. (1991). Meteorology Today. (West Publishing Company, St. Paul, MN).

(9) NOAA database http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

(10) Dundee University http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html (11) EMSC database https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2