PAST PREDICTIONS(1998-2000)

This table lists the earthquake predictions that Zhonghao Shou have submitted to the local USGS (Pasadena) since February 13, 1994

Under construction. When completed, there will be a link to each of the predictions with

photo or satellite image of the earthquake cloud
datails of the prediction
prediction signed by the USGS
discussion and analysis of the prediction

Please check back again soon.

Prediction		Earthquake Prediction			Actual Earthquake						Prob. %
#	Date	Time	Location	Magnitude	Time		Location		Magnitude		Prob. %
26	1/5/98	1/5-2/4	30~37N, 58~95E (Afghanistan, etc)	>=6	2/4 14:	V	37.075, 70.089 (Afghanistan)	V	6.1 ML	V	13.0
27	1/6/98	1/8~2/8	Mexico	>= 5.5	2/3 3:02	V	15.883, -96.298 Mexico	V	6.4 Mw	V	27.3
28	3/9/98	3/12-4/1	15~30N, 150~180W	>= 5	3/23 2:28	V	43.46, -127.1 (Oregon)	x	5.1	V	7.4
29	4/6/98	4/9-5/1	Mexico & SCa<34N	4.9~5.3	4/25 11:19	V	17.67, -94.18 (Mexico)	V	5.2	V	38
30	7/24/98	7/24-8/12	35~38.5N, 117~119W	4.3~5.2	8/1 6:01	V	37.57, -118.73 (Ca-Nevada border)	V	4.3	V	9.9
31	11/23/98	11/24-12/18	35~37.7N, 116~119W	>=4.5	12/12 1:41	V	37.46, -116.29 (Nevada)	V	4.5	V	23.5
32	12/28/98	12/30-1/30	35~37.7N, 116~119W	4.6~5.1	1/27 10:44	V	36.81, -115.98 (Ca-Nevada border)	V	4.7	V	14.2
33	2/22/99	3/1-4/1	28~38N, 50~100E	>=6	3/4 5:38	V	28.31, 57.17 (S Iran)	V	6.2	V	21.5
34	4/2/99	4/6-4/26	30~33.0N, 112~117.0W	4~5.2	4/7 6:26	V	32.58, -116.16 (Ca-Mexico border)	V	4.1	V	21.9
35	4/12/99	4/12-5/29	34~37N, >=116W	>=5	5/14 7:54	V	34.06, -116.37 (Vucca Valley, SCa)	V	5.0	V	16.4
36	5/5/99	5/5-6/5	27~33N, 114.5~115.5W	>=4.8	6/1 15:18	V	32.37, -115.24 (Ca-Baja Border)	V	4.9	V	2.46
37	5/17/99	5/25-6/15	17~27N, Mexico	>=6	6/15 22:41	V	18.41, -97.34 (Mexico)	V	6.7	V	8.74
38	6/9/99	6/9-7/25	35~39N, 118~119W	4.4~4.9	7/11 18:20	V	35.73, -118.49	V	4.5	V	15.0
39	7/26/99	8/12-8/30	36~42N, 113~117E, China	>=5	8/17 10:41	V	29.24, 105.73 (Sichuan,China)	x	5.1	V	4.2
40	8/25/99	8/25-10/2	38~42N,122W, N-CA	>=5.5	8/18 6:18	x	37.91, -122.69 (Northern California)	V	5.0	x	16.2
41	10/25/99	10/25-11/14	30~40N, 51~58E, Caspian Sea, Iran, Turkmenistan	>=6.5	11/12 16:57	V	40.79, 31.11, Turkey	x	7.2	V	0.85
42	12/27/99	12/27~2/10	25~28S, 60~80E, South India Ocean	>=7	2/10 14:18 & 23:00	V	-27.63, 65.62 & -27.55, 65.61. South India Ocean	V	5.5 & 5.7	x	5.2
43	2/18/00	2/18~3/1	28~31N, 57~59E, Southern Iran	>=4.5	2/29 17:56	V	28.0, 57.37 Southern Iran	V	4.5 mb	V	10.2
44	2/28/00	2/28~4/15	32~33.2N, 115.1~115.5W, Southern CA	>=4.5	4/9 10:48	V	32.692, -115.392 Southern CA	V	4.3	V	1.04
45	2/28/00	3/25~4/10	37~37.8N, 36.8~37.2E, Eastern Turkey	one=5 or two=4	4/2 11:41 & 20:26	V	37.57, 37.19 & 37.65, 37.23	V	4.2 & 4.4	V	0.44
46	3/22/00	3/23~4/15	35~38N, 116~118W, CA	>=4.3	3/28 15:16	V	36.016, -117.874 CA	V	4.3	V	4.31
47	4/21/00	4/21~5/23	34.2~35.1N, 118.3~118.7W, Kern, Southern CA	>=4	5/18 9:41	V	35.097, -118.306, Kern, Southern CA	V	3.9	V	7.62
48	4/22/00	4/22~5/23	33.5~37N, 115~118W, CA	>=4	5/23 4:22	V	36.32, -118.06, CA	V	4.0	V	35.4
49	6/29/00	6/29~7/10	34~35.2N, 139.1~139.7E, Japan	>=6	7/1 7:01	V	34.32,139.04, Japan	V	6.1	V	1.4
50	7/5/00	7/5~8/5	<34N, <142.5E, Japan or the East Chinese Sea	>=6	7/30 12:25	V	33.96,139.28, Japan	V	6.4	V	2.6

Note:

(1) Probability represents the possibility of a random guess being true under the limits of a prediction. To calculate the probability, first, select such earthquakes from a certain data base that their epicenters are within the predicted area and their sizes are within the predicted magnitude range; second, divide the period of the data base into intervals as same as the predicted time span, and count the sum of all intervals as A; third, choose such intervals that they do not contain any selected earthquake, and count their sum as B; then calculate the probability P = 1- B/A.

An additional explanation for this method is that the calculated probabilities are often larger than what they really are because the method ignores a big risk to choose correct area windows, i.e., the area windows are always suposed to be right. On the other hand, it avoids an argument about how to select a corresponding database for a prediction.

Corrected Probability represents a probability after correcting the main mistakes.

(2) Both earthquake databases and our predictions are supposed to have an error 0.1 each, or 0.2 together for latitude, longitude and magnitude although in fact larger.